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Burma's military government is good at two things: cracking down
on peaceful demonstrators, and coolly ignoring any international
criticism that might follow.
Both skills have been on full display in recent weeks, as anger
over high fuel prices drove a few courageous people onto the
streets, only to be met with the expected heavy hand. If the junta
has one bedrock policy, it's to prevent any repetition of the 1988
uprising that came so close to overthrowing decades of army rule.
Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer once remarked sagely
that progress in Burma is like glue flowing up a hill. Yet it's
important to understand that beneath the long-running political
stalemate in Rangoon, Burma is actually changing fast; not
necessarily in the right direction, but changing all the same. The
problem is not that the situation will stand still: the problem is
that things might get worse — much worse.
First, there's the civil war. For nearly half a century, the
Burmese army battled an array of communist and ethnic-minority
rebellions, growing bigger and tougher in the process and seizing
power along the way. About 15 years ago, the government and most of
the rebel groups agreed to a historic set of cease-fires. But these
are just cease-fires, and the international community has done
little or nothing to encourage efforts toward a just and
sustainable peace. The civil war is at the center of Burma's
problems; it's what has brutalized and impoverished the country,
and its proper conclusion is crucial to any progress.
Then there's the economy, one of the poorest in the world.
After 30 years of self-imposed isolation and ruinous
quasi-socialist policies, the junta reversed course in the early
1990s, privatizing businesses, welcoming foreign trade and
investment, and seeking international aid. But the West began to
impose debilitating sanctions, and the threat of boycotts kept most
international companies away. The World Bank and the International
Monetary Fund were prevented from helping. Around the same time the
Burmese discovered a treasure trove of natural gas, worth hundreds
of billions of dollars, sitting offshore. The net result? A Burmese
regime that can easily withstand Western sanctions, an economy
still closely tied to official power and patronage, and a growing
underclass facing greater hardship than ever before. Millions of
poor people from rural areas are on the move, in search of work and
food, including across the border into Thailand. Many are now in
desperate need of basic life-saving assistance, and yet per capita
international aid to Burma (less than $3 a year per person) remains
about a twentieth of what's provided to Cambodia, Laos or
Vietnam.
Third, there's the changing nature of the state itself. Over
the past couple of decades, the Burmese army has more than doubled
in size, to over 400,000 men, and is today one of the largest
armies anywhere. In many ways, the army is the state in Burma.
Other institutions of government — the civil service, the
health and education systems, local administration — are
either extremely frail or virtually nonexistent. Insurgent armies
still hold sway over parts of the borderlands. And in some other
areas there simply isn't much government at all; perhaps an army
battalion to keep down any potential dissent, but almost nothing to
provide basic social and legal services. Any major political
upheaval is as likely to lead to anarchy as anything else.
Finally there is the looming presence of China, the rising
superpower on Burma's doorstep. While Western countries have been
wondering how to promote democracy, China has been quietly changing
the facts on the ground. More and more of Burma's economy is being
linked north and east, with new roads, bridges and railways, and
now plans for a multibillion-dollar oil pipeline extending from the
Bay of Bengal across the Irrawaddy Valley to China's Yunnan
Province and beyond. Hundreds of thousands of Chinese have already
settled in Burma in recent years and more will likely follow.
Taken together, all these changes suggest possibly treacherous
times ahead. The cease-fires could come unstuck. The humanitarian
crisis in parts of the country could get worse. State structures
could further weaken, rendering even more difficult any transition
to a future democratic government. And it's not impossible that
China's growing presence, combined with rising economic
frustrations, will lead to anti-Chinese violence. Sanctions and
long-distance condemnation do little to address the multifaceted
challenges facing the country today. They were a response to the
very different Burma of nearly 20 years ago, when it looked like
democracy was just around the corner and a good push from friends
overseas might make all the difference. Without a fresh
international approach, it may soon be too late to avoid a
catastrophe in Burma.
Source:
Time
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